On Sunday, October 25, Brazil will choose its next president in a runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Three weeks after a first round that Bolsonaro won by fewer than two percentage points, here are five things to know before the polls open.
First-round recap
- Flávio Bolsonaro: ~47.0% of valid votes
- Lula: ~45.2%
- Other candidates combined: ~7.8%
1. The math favours whoever wins the middle
With nearly 8% of first-round votes going to other candidates, the result hinges on where those voters go — and whether they vote at all. Several eliminated candidates, including Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, come from the centre-right, giving Bolsonaro a potential edge. Lula’s path depends on mobilising abstainers and persuading moderates.
2. Crime is the dominant issue
Public security has shaped the campaign more than any other topic. Both candidates promise tougher action against organised crime; Lula has even backed lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for heinous crimes, a notable shift for a left-wing leader.
3. The Bolsonaro name cuts both ways
Flávio carries the political brand of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro — a source of passionate support among conservatives and strong opposition among others. The runoff is, in many ways, a rematch between Brazil’s two dominant political camps.
4. Relations with Washington are on the ballot
The winner will shape Brazil’s relationship with the United States on trade, tariffs and diplomacy. Investors have largely priced a Bolsonaro win as market-friendly; Brazil’s main stock index rose sharply during the campaign.
5. Social media and fair play
Brazil’s electoral court has ordered major platforms, including Meta, to ensure equal treatment of the candidates, reflecting concerns about misinformation that have marked recent elections.
Whoever wins will govern a country split almost exactly in half — and will need to convince the other half quickly.
What happens after Sunday
- Results: Brazil’s electronic voting system usually delivers results within hours of polls closing at 17:00 Brasília time.
- Inauguration: January 1, 2027.
- Congress: The new president will need coalition partners in a fragmented legislature.
Follow the vote in our Politics section.