Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a runoff after neither leading candidate cleared the 50% threshold in Sunday’s first round. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first with about 47.0% of valid votes, narrowly ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party on about 45.2%. The two will meet again on October 25.
First-round results (valid votes)
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): ~47.03% — about 56.1 million votes
- Lula (PT): ~45.16% — about 53.9 million votes
- Augusto Cury: 2.89% · Renan Santos: 2.24% · Ronaldo Caiado: 2.18%
A narrow gap
With more than 99.99% of ballots counted by the electoral court, the gap stood at roughly 1.9 percentage points — about 2.2 million votes in a country of more than 150 million registered voters. A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright, so the race now becomes a head-to-head contest.
Where the remaining votes could go
Around 7% of valid votes went to other candidates. Several of them, including Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, come from the centre-right, which could favour Bolsonaro in the second round. But Lula’s campaign will try to mobilise voters who stayed home in the first round and appeal to moderates uneasy about a return of the Bolsonaro political brand.
The issues dominating the campaign
- Crime and public security: A central theme, with both camps promising tougher responses to organised crime.
- Corruption: Each side has accused the other of misconduct, keeping trust in institutions at the forefront.
- Relations with Washington: Trade and diplomatic ties with the United States have become a major point of debate.
- The economy: Inflation, interest rates and fuel prices weigh on household budgets.
Brazil’s runoff is less a choice between two programmes than a referendum on two political families that have defined the country for two decades.
Markets react
Investors have responded to the uncertainty, with Brazilian assets swinging as polls and results came in. Many market participants see a Bolsonaro victory as more business-friendly, while Lula’s supporters point to social programmes and economic growth during his term.
Key dates
The runoff takes place on Sunday, October 25, with polls closing at 17:00 Brasília time. The winner will take office on January 1, 2027. We will publish a full runoff preview in the days before the vote. Follow our Politics coverage.